Transcript of my first lecture at BFBV course at MDI.
I got a mail from a student. Nikhil wrote: Your approach to multidisciplinary thinking is highly pragmatic but it is an approach never taken in the entirety of our education. Throughout we are taught subjects individually and each of the problems that we are given is confined to the context of that particular subject only,… Continue reading Playing Socratic Solitaire on a Gal Called NIMBY
Hello there. My name is Umbridge. I am a slimy, green frog. No, not the one who you heard croaking in a movie you watched last month. Nor the one you saw hopping about in your balcony this monsoon. (You shouldn't have screamed at poor Groffy! He jumped over and broke a leg.) I am the… Continue reading How to Boil a Frog
What do you really mean when you say you are 90% sure about something? Are you really sure about what it means to be 90% sure? Probably not, according to several studies which show people are consistently overconfident about their beliefs, pretty much like the cat in the picture below: One trick that makes it… Continue reading Story@BFBV: Watch Your Language!
The jury system has been designed to be a great system of decision making. So what happens in a jury system? Watch 12 Angry Men. Its a great movie to observe psychological models at work. 12 not so angry men (or women) who are honorable and have no connection with the case are required to… Continue reading Story@BFBV: The 12 Angry Men Story
Fitzgerald was right. Almost always there is a reason to not to do something that you have decided to do. People hate contradictions. They make you uncomfortable. You own a stock which is ridiculously cheap. The market, however, is not cheap. What should you do? Do you ignore the market or do you focus on… Continue reading Story@BFBV: The Scott Fitzgerald Story
You can never really prove the proposition that "all swans are white" even if you spot a million of them and all of them turn out to be white. But you can certainly disprove the proposition that "all swans are white" by sighting a single black swan. Nassim Taleb's explains Karl Popper's powerful idea of falsification… Continue reading Story@BFBV: The Swan Story
If you have spent a month researching an idea, it does not become more attractive than a no-brainer flash you get which you are in the shower. The attractiveness of a stock comes from the difference between its intrinsic value and its market price, and the probability of the two converging. It does not come… Continue reading Story@BFBV: “I Have Too Much Invested in This” Story