Very thoughtful points, Prof. Bakshi. Especially the one about proving/disproving theories. Reminds me of 2 succinct anecdotes by Taleb:
1. “Statement A: No swan is black, because I looked at four thousand swans and found none.
Statement B: Not all swans are white.”
2. “I have just completed a thorough statistical examination of the life of President Bush. For fifty-eight years, close to 21,000 observations, he did not die once. I can hence pronounce him as immortal, with a high degree of statistical significance.”
Very thoughtful points, Prof. Bakshi. Especially the one about proving/disproving theories. Reminds me of 2 succinct anecdotes by Taleb:
1. “Statement A: No swan is black, because I looked at four thousand swans and found none.
Statement B: Not all swans are white.”
2. “I have just completed a thorough statistical examination of the life of President Bush. For fifty-eight years, close to 21,000 observations, he did not die once. I can hence pronounce him as immortal, with a high degree of statistical significance.”
Excerpts From: Fooled by Randomness.
It’s a great feeling to read your post after so long
Nice and crisp article.