Here is the transcript of my today’s talk at October Quest 2015 in Mumbai.
Super stuff. Not only in content but in timing for those who could not be a part of either frames or octoberquest. Will read it again and perhaps then again over the weekend till it fully sinks in.
Thank you, sir.
Sent from my iPad
Excellent post as usual..
“A Bayesian is someone who, vaguely expecting a horse, and glimpsing the tail of a donkey, concludes he has probably seen a mule.” – John Hussman
Thanks for sharing your learning’s and transcript. The concept you explain always takes months to get digested in mind. Best part is it gives food for thoughts in different area.
[ What an investor is dealing with when making investing decisions is a nest of “complex adaptive systems” which makes his or her job genuinely hard. This means, says Munger:
“An investment decision in the common stock of a company frequently involves a whole lot of factors interacting … the one thing that causes the most trouble is when you combine a bunch of these together, you get this lollapalooza effect.”
If one adopts the model of “complex adaptive systems” one accepts the idea that there are many things that can not be modeled with certainty. In Charlie’s view it is better to have common sense and be Worldly Wise than futz around with a lot of models that are precisely wrong rather than approximately right. Munger: “People calculate too much and think too little.” ] – Source : http://25iq.com/2013/01/27/charlie-munger-on-the-importance-of-worldly-wisdom-and-consistently-not-being-stupid/
Simply brilliant sir…. Thanks for sharing
Wonderful writing, Awesome. Thanks !!
Your class is super learned a lot from you.
Dear Sir, I need to do more studying to understand this article completely. But, I though you may enjoy this video.
There is an example of “Powerful story” in this speech, the story of aliens visiting Earth. One take away from the alien story is that, when forecasting fails, one would think that the forecasters would change their mind, but if the story is strong, this speech conveys that people would start to believe it stronger!
Wonderful article again. I think can also use the maths classroom scene from Hollywood movie “21” and also how to get the girls scene from “A Beautiful Mind” to even better explain this dilemma.
Here are the necessary links to the relevant ideas used to explain this.
The most elegant and easy to understand talk on Bayesian thought process I have ever come across. Love it and this made me your fan!!!
I have been following your teachings since couple of months, i have a query upon which i have been thinking for weeks but could not solve. Problem is:-
When i read your articles, i get a sense that one should avoid noise from signals, basically one should avoid redundant news, but when i read Alice Schroeder`s “ Warren Buffett Biography”. I got to learn that he used to read a lot, in fact he used to read old newspapers as well, and from the Moody`s manuals only he used to pick up stocks which are undervalued or whose book price was greater than market price. Charlie Munger also have said that he reads lot of business magazines to hunt for new investment ideas.
I am perhaps not able to connect to your mental map here, please enlighten me
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