Begin forwarded message:
From: Sanjay Bakshi <sanjay>
Subject: Re: question
Date: 11 April 2015 10:11:48 GMT-4
I don’t think in terms of entry multiples. I do think about exit multiples though and never value a business at more than 20 times owner earnings ten years from now. And I only limit to high ROE, low leverage businesses (most of my portfolio businesses are debt-free) which can grow earnings where return on incremental capital is high.
Under those conditions, no matter what the entry multiple, I can estimate a return over ten years. If entry multiple is high, I factor in a multiple contraction, and if low, then an expansion. Obviously the best returns come in the latter situation but by focusing on expected returns, I have sometimes bought high P/E businesses too because even if there was a multiple contraction, there is good money to be made in a decade…
In some businesses, I don’t go beyond 5 years – as my visibility is a lot less in them.
Also when I said 20x multiple ten years from now as maximum I will value the firm at, I mean it. Many of them are valued at 15x and some as low as 10x…
It’s pretty rudimentary, but has worked for me over the last several years…
On 10-Apr-2015, at 19:33, xxxx wrote:
stupid question may be : how will you correlate a compounder roe, eps growth to a pe multiple or any multiple. have u come across any mathematical formula. i think i saw some people writing about it but cant remember.
no rush or urgency.