Story@BFBV: The 12 Angry Men Story

The jury system has been designed to be a great system of decision making.

So what happens in a jury system? Watch 12 Angry Men. Its a great movie to observe psychological models at work.

12 not so angry men (or women) who are honorable and have no connection with the case are required to sit in a room and listen. They are not allowed to talk – the talking is done by the lawyers and the witnesses and the judge. The jury members are required to keep them minds open and their mouths shut and hear the proceedings of the case including the arguments brought forward by both sides. They are required to NOT DECIDE AT THIS POINT. No jumping to conclusions allowed. No first conclusion bias here. No confirmation bias either.

Then they are asked to go sit in a room and NOT COME OUT until they have a UNANIMOUS (or majority in some countries) decision. To arrive at the decision, they need to debate, discuss, look at different points of view, and only AFTER this has been done are they required to DECIDE.

This is a WONDERFUL system of decision making because it forces objectivity, removes first conclusion bias, and confirmation bias – IF IT WORKS. In reality, psychologically astute lawyers will use all the tricks in the trade to manipulate jury members – but at least in theory the jury system is a fabulous system – and strongly advice you to adopt it in your own decision making process.

Remember this: The decision to not decide now on a matter is also a decision. There is wisdom in the Chinese proverb: “My indecision is final.”

1 thought on “Story@BFBV: The 12 Angry Men Story”

  1. Dear Sir

    I am not a regular on your website but this blog of yours is my situation for investing. And it is not comfortable or profitable. I am not good at finance and take advise from people (friends/relatives) about their opinions (and not tips) about companies. I get quite different and contrarian opinions which leads to indecision. For example,
    1. Jyothy Laboratories: Good brand business (how to classify), growing in categories (maybe unrelated adventures), PE of 26 (MNC brands available at same rate)
    2. Tata Steel: Possible turnaround story (or not), good management (but what about returns to shareholders), low PE (or maybe its high as the steel prices are high already)

    What is your advise on how to reach a decision of buy / sell, based on contrarian opinions?

    Richlife seeker

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